- The 3-month
running average (moving average)
smooths over the monthly fluctuations which may be partially
error and partially
actual physical fluctuations.
- Determining an average
is tricky since there is no absolute standard.
Earth is always flexing in
complex ways in every different area and
There must be an elaborate procedure for arriving at an
- Circa 2020,
the sea level rise rate
is ∼ 0.30(04) cm/yr
(see Wikipedia: Sea level rise:
Sea level measurement).
- By 2100,
sea level rise is expected
be somewhere between 0.3 m and 2.5 m over the present
(see Wikipedia: Sea level rise).
There are vast uncertainties in such predictions.
- Just extrapolating the current rise rate, we can expect a rise of
∼ 26 cm.
But the rise rate is NOT expected to stay constant.
So the 26 cm prediction is NOT robust.